domingo, 2 de enero de 2011

Why Do We Need to Predict the Future? - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com

Este interesante artículo tiene enlaces a otros ensayos que plantean un tema que NYT planteó hace años a varios pensadores: la pertinencia de predecir el futuro.

WEBXISTENCE se concentra precisamente en debatir y proponer aspectos relativos a la existencia del ser humano, su relación y habitación en el tiempo, que planteo para nuestros efectos es el pasado y las conexiones entre la existencia, la mente, la conciencia y Dios.

Why Do We Need to Predict the Future? - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com



Updated December 27, 2010 06:13 PM

Why Do We Need Predictions?

Introduction

predicting the futureMark Weaver
In 1931, The Times celebrated its 80th birthday by invitingHenry Ford and seven other American innovators to predict what life would be like in 80 years.
W.J. Mayo, the founder of the Mayo Clinic, said that by 2011, the average life span, then only 54, would rise to 70(it is 77.9). The physicist Arthur Compton, noting China's rise, said "science will no longer be a monopoly of the West." William Ogburn, a sociologist, said "people will become more nervous and mental disorders will rise for a time, but by 2011 mental hygienists will probably have the upper hand."
Even though prognostications turn out to be wrong as often as they are right, why do they have such enduring power and appeal? What purpose have they served, from ancient times to our information age? This is the first of two Room for Debate forums exploring these questions. Tomorrow, we will hear fromJaron Lanier, Robert J. Shiller, Elif Batuman, David Ropeik and Sherry Turkle.
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